Posted by gary in Uncategorized

[a] the debt ceiling was recently raised so the national debt is going up, [b] the cleanup and repair costs of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma aren’t in the current budget numbers. The cost estimates for Harvey range in the $150 billion area; and while it appears that Irma’s share may be less, it will still be a big number, [c] Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has hinted that the to be announced tax reform bill will be revenue neutral assuming a 3% growth rate. In other words, it won’t be revenue neutral, at least initially; and that would mean a further increase in the debt to GDP ratio which may only serve to make achieving 3% growth all the more difficult.My bottom line is that (on the assumption that the aforementioned studies are correct which I believe that they are) the US economic growth will not return to its former long term secular rate until the government returns to a more prudent fiscal policy.

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